Cotton · U.S.
WASDE #677 · released Nov 10, 2026 · next WASDE Dec 10
November 2026 WASDE · Million 480-lb bales
Ending stocks 2026/27 Proj.
3.70
−0.10 vs last month · mil. bales
Stocks-to-use 2026/27
27.0%
−0.5 pt vs last month
Where it sits in history
11 of 17
past seasons were tighter (final values)
Old crop 2025/26
4.15
unch. ending stocks vs last month
Balance sheet
Million 480-lb bales · change vs October 2026 under each value
| Line | 2024/25 | 2025/26 Est. | 2026/27 Proj. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area plantedMillion acres | 11.2 | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| Area harvestedMillion acres | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| YieldPounds per acre | 892.0 | 852.0 | 775.0 −15.0 |
| Beginning stocks | 3.15 | 4.00 | 4.15 |
| Production | 14.4 | 13.9 | 13.2 −0.3 |
| Imports | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Total supply | 17.6 | 17.9 | 17.3 −0.3 |
| Domestic use | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1.40 −0.10 |
| Exports | 11.9 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Total use | 13.6 | 13.8 | 13.7 −0.1 |
| Ending stocks | 4.00 | 4.15 | 3.70 −0.10 |
| Stocks-to-use (%)% | 29.4 | 30.1 | 27.0 −0.5 |
| Season-average farm priceCents per lb | 63.20 | 62.20 | 76.00 −1.00 |
Why ending stocks changed
Each bar is a line's effect on ending stocks: more domestic use or exports lowers stocks, so they appear with the opposite sign of the balance-sheet change.
Show data table
| Step | Effect on ending stocks (mil. bales) |
|---|---|
| Oct estimate | 3.80 |
| Production · yield | −0.26 |
| Domestic use | +0.10 |
| Other / rounding | +0.06 |
| Nov estimate | 3.70 |
How USDA's estimate evolved
Million 480-lb bales. Month 0 is the first projection in May; after 12 months the projection becomes an estimate. Blue: 2026/27; grey: 2021/22–2025/26.
Show data table
| Month of cycle | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| Jun | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| Jul | 3.30 | 2.40 | 3.80 | 5.30 | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| Aug | 3.00 | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Sep | 3.70 | 2.70 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Oct | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 4.10 | — | 3.80 |
| Nov | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| Dec | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 4.40 | 4.50 | — |
| Jan | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.90 | 4.80 | 4.20 | — |
| Feb | 3.50 | 4.30 | 2.80 | 4.90 | 4.40 | — |
| Mar | 3.50 | 4.30 | 2.50 | 4.90 | 4.40 | — |
| Apr | 3.50 | 4.10 | 2.50 | 5.00 | 4.40 | — |
| May (yr 2) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 4.80 | 4.40 | — |
| Jun (yr 2) | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.85 | 4.40 | 4.20 | — |
| Jul (yr 2) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 4.10 | 4.20 | — |
| Aug (yr 2) | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.15 | 4.00 | 4.20 | — |
| Sep (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | 4.15 | — |
| Oct (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | — | 4.15 | — |
| Nov (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | 4.15 | — |
| Dec (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Jan (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Feb (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Mar (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Apr (yr 2) | 3.75 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 4.00 | — | — |
Stocks-to-use by marketing year
Grey: final value of completed seasons; blue: 2026/27 projection; mid-tone: 2025/26 estimate. n = 17 final seasons. Ending stocks ÷ total use (domestic + exports).
Show data table
| Marketing year | Stocks-to-use | Ending stocks | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008/09 | 37.6% | 6.34 | final |
| 2009/10 | 18.9% | 2.95 | final |
| 2010/11 | 14.2% | 2.60 | final |
| 2011/12 | 22.3% | 3.35 | final |
| 2012/13 | 23.0% | 3.80 | final |
| 2013/14 | 16.7% | 2.35 | final |
| 2014/15 | 24.6% | 3.65 | final |
| 2015/16 | 30.2% | 3.80 | final |
| 2016/17 | 15.1% | 2.75 | final |
| 2017/18 | 21.5% | 4.20 | final |
| 2018/19 | 27.2% | 4.85 | final |
| 2019/20 | 41.1% | 7.25 | final |
| 2020/21 | 16.8% | 3.15 | final |
| 2021/22 | 23.8% | 4.05 | final |
| 2022/23 | 32.1% | 4.65 | final |
| 2023/24 | 23.2% | 3.15 | final |
| 2024/25 | 29.4% | 4.00 | final |
| 2025/26 | 30.1% | 4.15 | est |
| 2026/27 | 27.0% | 3.70 | proj |