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Soybeans: every USDA report

5 reports cover soybeans · the latest number from each, with its release date

Every number links to the report chapter it comes from; every file is in the data catalogue, with its sha256. Units are USDA’s own.

Findings that passed their gates

Insight rules for soybeans this build (n and caveats on each card)
WASDE × Export Sales

U.S. soybean export commitments vs USDA

65.5%of USDA’s 2026/27 export projection (October 2026 WASDE, as of the release)
39%58%

5 prior years at week 9: mean 51.8%, range 38.7%–57.9%

above the 5-yr rangen = 5small sample
  • · ESR commitments are not Census exports
  • · History = % of the USDA projection at the time
  • · Past weeks are USDA’s latest revision, not as first published
Source: ESR Nov 5, 2026 · WASDE October 2026Open the chart →Data
Export Sales · week ending Oct 29, 2026

China’s share of U.S. soybean commitments

52.8%Unknown destinations: 18.5%
1%57%

5 prior years at this week: mean 41.9%, range 1.4%–57.4%

inside the 5-yr rangen = 5small sample
  • · Unknown destinations can hide China
  • · Past weeks are USDA’s latest revision, not as first published
Source: ESR Nov 5, 2026Open the chart →Data
Crush (NASS) · September 2026

U.S. soybean crush vs USDA, 2026/27 to date

7.2%of USDA’s 2026/27 crush projection (October 2026 WASDE, as of the release)
7%–8%

5 prior years through September: mean 7.7%, range 7.5%–8.0%

below the 5-yr rangen = 5small sample
  • · History = % of the USDA projection at the time
  • · History window: 2015-10+ (NASS files on ESMIS)
  • · Each NASS release revises the previous month
Source: NASS crush Nov 2, 2026 · WASDE October 2026Open the chart →Data
Crop Progress · week ending Nov 8, 2026

U.S. soybeans harvested

92%of the acreage

+1 pts vs NASS’s 5-yr average of 91% (2021-2025)

ahead of the 5-yr averagen = 5small sample
  • · National = NASS’s selected-states aggregate
  • · 5-yr average as published by NASS
Source: Crop Progress Nov 9, 2026Open the chart →Data
Grain Stocks · stocks on Sep 1, 2026

U.S. soybean stocks on Sep 1 vs USDA

−10 mil. bu−3.0% vs the September 2026 WASDE

NASS 315 mil. bu vs WASDE 325 mil. bu (2025/26 ending stocks)

14th largest gap of 17 (2009/10–2025/26)

Larger than 19% of those gaps

below USDA’s estimaten = 17
  • · History: each year against the WASDE public at that release
  • · NASS stocks as first printed
Source: Grain Stocks Sep 30, 2026 · WASDE September 2026Open the chart →Data